Overview
What happened?
Five years of actual, SEC-filed results (FY2021–FY2025), including catching and correcting a real cross-filing segment-expense reclassification.
What could happen?
Three explicit, assumption-documented scenarios (Base / Upside / Downside) through FY2030, built entirely from information available as of the FY2025 10-K.
What can safely be deployed?
A corrected capital-allocation taxonomy separating stock, generated cash, borrowing capacity, and reserves — yielding a net, not gross, deployable-capacity figure.
Revenue & Free Cash Flow — Actual vs. Forecast
$ millions. Solid = actual (FY2021–FY2025, SEC-filed). Dashed = forecast (FY2026–FY2030, scenario-based).
Net Horizon Deployable Capacity by Scenario, FY2026–FY2030
Why this project is different
- Reconciles multiple SEC filing vintages instead of silently choosing one.
- Distinguishes CapEx from total investing cash flow — never substituted for each other.
- Preserves original and restated facts side by side, with a full lineage trail.
- Separates stock, generated cash, borrowing capacity, deployment, and residual headroom — never blended into one ambiguous number.
- Detects and documents its own methodology defects across three correction rounds, transparently, in the evidence record.
- Provides deterministic lineage and clean-room reproduction — the same database rebuilds bit-for-bit from the 8 source filings.
- Carries the same validated outputs through Python, Excel, a Power BI-ready handoff, and this website.
Historical Evidence (FY2021–FY2025, Actuals Only)
No forecast values appear on this section — every number is a filed, actual result.
$ millions. Revenue, gross profit, operating income, and net income — all actual, all restated to the latest-restated analytical view.
Cash-Flow Definitions — FY2025 Reference Values
These four figures are frequently confused. Each is a distinct, independently sourced measure — never substituted for one another anywhere in this project.
▶ Inspect Filing-Vintage Reconciliation (As-Filed vs. Restated)
Where a later filing restated an earlier one, both vintages are preserved — never silently overwritten.
Quarterly Cash Seasonality (Independent of the Forecast Model)
$ millions, quarter-end cash balances. Sourced from 10-Qs, independent of any forecast assumption.
Scenario Forecast (FY2026–FY2030)
Uses the scenario selected above. Forecast, not fact — built entirely from information available as of the FY2025 10-K.
Revenue, Gross Profit, Operating Income, Net Income
$ millions. All dashed — every value here is a forecast.
Margins (%)
Percent of revenue. Shown on its own axis — never mixed with a dollar-denominated series on the same scale.
Diluted EPS ($)
Dollars per share — its own unit, its own chart.
CFO & Free Cash Flow
$ millions.
Investment Capacity — Corrected Taxonomy
This is the differentiating feature of the project. Every component below is labeled as a STOCK, FLOW, SOURCE, USE, or RESERVE — never blended. Debt-funded capacity is never combined with self-funded capacity: new borrowing is not internally generated operating cash.
Why this matters
A single "deployable capacity" number that mixes an opening cash stock, this year's generated cash, new borrowing, and money already spent is not one thing — it cannot be compared across scenarios or years without knowing which of those four ingredients moved. This taxonomy keeps them separate so a reviewer can see why a number changed, not just that it did.
FY2030, selected scenario. Source/use waterfall — see the full five-year reconciliation below.
Five-Year Source/Use Waterfall (FY2026–FY2030)
Remaining Deployable Headroom by Year STOCK
A stock, not a flow — never sum these values across years. The FY2026–FY2030 cumulative reconciliation (a genuinely additive figure) is in the table below.
Gross vs. Net Horizon Capacity, by Scenario
Gross is shown only to prove the reconciliation — never publish it alone as "accessible capacity."
Cumulative Capacity Reconciliation, FY2026–FY2030
Evidence & methodology for this section
Full per-year detail (legacy/deprecated fields shown at bottom)
Capital Allocation Waterfall & No-Double-Counting Proof
Where every dollar of generated cash actually went, for the selected scenario and fiscal year.
Legacy waterfall (deprecated, backward-compatibility only)
This ends at the legacy, deprecated gross ceiling — preserved for backward compatibility only. See "Investment Capacity" above for the executive-facing, corrected figures.
DCF Valuation & Sensitivities
This DCF is a scenario-based illustration built entirely from public FY2025 10-K data and stated assumptions. It is not a price target, analyst estimate, or investment recommendation.
WACC Build
Valuation Bridge
Implied Value/Share by Scenario
Scenario-based analytical outputs. Not a price target.
WACC × Terminal Growth Sensitivity (Implied Value/Share)
Gross Margin × Revenue Growth Sensitivity (Implied Value/Share)
Reminder: every figure on this page, including this section, is scenario analysis — not a price target, not investment advice.
Illustrative What-If Lab
Browser-only exploratory recalculation. These values are not persisted and do not replace the approved scenario model. Recomputes FY2030 headline figures using the exact same formulas as the published model, starting from the selected scenario's defaults.
Illustrative sandbox — not persisted to the audited core model
Published Scenario Baseline
What-If Output LAB — NOT PUBLISHED
Audit & Methodology
▶ Inspect SEC Source Reconciliation & Footnote Provenance (8 Filings)
Validation & Methodology-Correction Timeline
Advanced detail: field-level formulas, lineage, and per-check results are in the full evidence record and the underlying database — not duplicated here to keep this page scannable. See Downloads below.
Known limitations
What this demonstrates
An end-to-end FP&A / strategic-finance workflow built entirely from public SEC filings: extracting and validating historical financial facts (including catching a real, undisclosed-in-summary segment-expense reclassification), building a scenario-based operating forecast with an explicit information cutoff, deriving an investment-capacity and capital-allocation framework with proven no-double-counting checks, running a restrained DCF valuation, and presenting all of it through an auditable, reproducible pipeline — a database, an Excel model, a Power BI-ready handoff package, and this web cockpit.
What this is not
Not investment advice, not a price target, not a claim of insider or non-public information, and not a prediction — every figure past FY2025 is a labeled scenario assumption, and every one of them is documented and reproducible from the source filings in docs/sources.csv.
Known limitations
Downloads & Project Evidence
Everything on this page traces back to one of these artifacts.
Power BI Implementation Preview — Offline Architecture
Static wireframes of the four Power BI report pages this handoff package is built to produce. This is not a live embedded .pbix report — Power BI Desktop was unavailable in the build environment, so the wireframes below, and the CSV/DAX/page-spec package linked above, are the implementation-ready hand-off artifact.
Scenario Thesis
What this means for capital allocation
Full scenario logic and assumptions